ATC Group

Market bulletin

EU to Africa frozen food market bulletin – November 2026 (No. 1)

Stanislav Tatarnikov, founder and CEO, ATC GroupUpdated 17 October 2026

Updated 17 October 2026. Data up to 16 October 2026. Next edition: early December 2026.

Our monthly reading of European supply for importers buying full containers for West and Central Africa. In mid-October 2026, mackerel and milk powder are the tightest products, EU pork is cheaper than a year ago, chicken is stable and freight is rising. Every figure comes from a dated public source, linked at the end.

Summary in five points

  1. Mackerel: the Norwegian season is almost over, export prices remain above last year, and 2027 quotas are not yet set.
  2. Poultry: the EU broiler price is stable, 4.2% below last year. Bird flu is back in several EU countries.
  3. Pork: EU pig prices are about 16% lower year on year. China buys less, and more EU pork goes to Africa.
  4. Skimmed milk powder: SMP rose 4.3% at the Global Dairy Trade auction of 6 October, its highest level since June 2022.
  5. Freight and rules: reefer freight is rising and empty containers are short. Gabon is reviewing its 2027 chicken ban.

Trend of the month

ProductTrendKey indicatorSource
Mackerel (Norway, under 600 g)UpWeek 41 export price 51.26 NOK/kg, vs 46.49 a year earlier. Volume 2,568 t vs 6,197 tNorwegian Seafood Council via IndexBox, 14/10/2026
Horse mackerel (Atlantic)StableICES 2027 advice 79,223 t (+6.7%). Zero catch for the North Sea stockThe Fishing Daily, 30/09/2026
Herring (substitute)UpWeek 41 frozen herring 22.76 NOK/kg vs 15.92 a year earlierNorwegian Seafood Council via IndexBox, 14/10/2026
Chicken (EU)StableBroiler carcass €289.89/100 kg, week 37: +0.8% week on week, -4.2% year on yearDG AGRI poultry dashboard, 16/09/2026
Pork (EU)Down (year on year)EU average pig price €169.34/100 kg, -15.9% year on yearDG AGRI pigmeat market situation, 17/09/2026
Skimmed milk powderUpGDT SMP +4.3% to US$3,847/t. Germany €3,550/t on 14/10Agriland, 07/10/2026; CLAL, 14/10/2026
Fries (potato supply)Stable now, pressure for 2027NEPG crop 20.695 Mt, -25.4%. Fries export price about €1,100/t in JunePotato News Today, 16/10/2026; CMB, 08/10/2026
Reefer freight Europe to West AfricaUpReefer rates +7% year on year (global). Surcharges keep Europe rates highDHL Q3 2026; ATC bookings

Pelagic fish: mackerel, horse mackerel, herring

Quotas. For 2026, Norway, the UK, the Faroe Islands and Iceland set a combined mackerel TAC of 299,010 t, a 48% cut. The EU, Greenland and Russia are outside that deal. ICES had advised 174,357 t. Norway's final national quota is 81,375 t.

On 30 September 2026, ICES advised that 2027 catches should not exceed 352,938 t, more than double its advice for 2026. The headline is misleading on its own. ICES expects total 2026 catches of 398,186 t, so the 2027 advice is about 11% lower than what will actually be caught this year. The 2026 deal was signed in December 2025, and there is still no agreement that includes every coastal state.

Norwegian season. In week 36, Norwegian vessels had caught about 31,000 t of a season quota of just over 77,000 t. By week 41 (report of 12 October), the season was nearly over. Only trawlers and the coastal fleet still had quota, about 3,350 t between them.

Prices. In week 41, Norway exported 2,568 t of frozen mackerel under 600 g at 51.26 NOK/kg. A year earlier it exported 6,197 t at 46.49 NOK/kg. GLOBEFISH reports that Asia was the largest market for frozen small pelagics in 2025, and that buyers there are switching to herring, which is also dearer (22.76 NOK/kg against 15.92).

Horse mackerel. ICES advises 79,223 t for Atlantic horse mackerel in 2027, up from 74,214 t, and zero catch for the North Sea stock.

See: frozen mackerel, Atlantic horse mackerel, sardinella.

Poultry

Prices and availability. The EU average broiler carcass price was €289.89/100 kg in week 37: up 0.8% on the week and down 4.2% on the year. EU poultry exports rose 1.6% to 867,981 t over January to May 2026. Ghana (86,900 t, +15.1%) and DR Congo (59,095 t, +18.0%) were the second and third destinations after the United Kingdom.

Bird flu this autumn. After only 2 poultry outbreaks between June and August, EFSA warned of an "expected autumn increase". By 7 October 2026, Europe counted 316 outbreaks on poultry farms in 16 countries this year, against 729 in all of 2025. In recent weeks there were new outbreaks in Bulgaria, France and the UK. Poland has the highest 2026 total (143), unchanged since May.

Restrictions by importing countries. Some importing countries apply regionalisation and suspend only the affected district. Hong Kong, for example, closed the Pleszewski district of Poland on 20 May 2026, not the whole country.

See: chicken leg quarters, chicken paws, whole hen.

Pork

EU prices. The EU average pig price (grades S and E) was €169.34/100 kg in mid-September, 15.9% lower than a year earlier. AHDB notes that seven weeks of increases ended in mid-September, and that strong supply and weak demand should keep prices low.

ASF and regionalisation. Spain declared African swine fever in wild boar in November 2025, the first time since 1994. China accepted regionalisation by province, so only the province of Barcelona is closed. The Philippines formally recognised regionalisation in May 2026. AHDB reports outbreaks spreading in Hungary.

China and offal. China imported 390,000 t of pork in the first half of 2026 (-26.4%) and 590,000 t of offal (-4.8%). Its final anti-dumping duties on EU pork, set on 16 December 2025, go up to 19.8%. USDA expects EU exporters to look harder at Africa in 2027. The shift has already started: from January to May 2026, EU pork exports rose 32.7% to Côte d'Ivoire, 67.9% to DR Congo and 6.6% to Congo.

See: pork front feet, pork neck bones.

Dairy: skimmed milk powder

At the Global Dairy Trade auction of 6 October 2026, SMP rose 4.3% to an average of US$3,847/t. That is its highest level since June 2022, and about 22.5% above its level six auctions earlier. SMP now trades above whole milk powder.

In Europe, German SMP was quoted at €3,550/t on 14 October 2026, with an October average of €3,465/t (CLAL). The last EU Milk Market Observatory dashboard we could open (12 August 2026) showed €280/100 kg. EU milk collection is still growing (+4.0% over January to April), but exports to Asia and the Gulf absorb the extra powder.

See: skimmed milk powder, SMP for West Africa, and our October analysis, why the SMP market is tightening.

Fries: the 2026 potato crop

The North-Western European Potato Growers (NEPG) forecast a crop of 20.695 million tonnes in Belgium, Germany, France and the Netherlands, down 25.4% on 2025 and 13.7% below the five-year average. The area is down 13.7% and the yield down 13.9%, after heat and drought in July and August. On 12 October, harvesting was 60 to 70% complete in the Netherlands, Germany and France, but no more than 25% in Belgium.

Tubers are shorter than normal and some growers may miss their contract volumes. Most of the crop was contracted at lower prices after the large 2025 harvest. In June 2026, EU fries export prices fell to about €1,100/t, the lowest since late 2022. Expect stable prices on current contracts, with risk on specifications and on 2027 contracts.

Logistics: reefer freight Europe to West Africa

  • Trend: DHL reports global reefer rates up 7% year on year in Q3 2026. In Europe, capacity is tight and surcharges keep rates high.
  • Surcharges: Middle East tensions led Maersk to add an emergency bunker surcharge in March 2026, up to US$600 per reefer. CMA CGM added an emergency fuel surcharge from 1 August 2026.
  • Public tariff example: Hapag-Lloyd raised its 40ft reefer rate from Antwerp to Tema from €2,400 to €2,500 for sailings from 1 July 2026, before local charges and surcharges.
  • On ATC's own bookings: October quotes to Abidjan were about 21% higher than in February 2026. MSC, the fastest direct service, is short of empty reefer containers in October.

Transit times and free days are covered in reefer container to Abidjan.

Regulation: what changed

CountryRuleStatus checked on 16/10/2026
AngolaExecutive Decree 130/26 (Diário da República, 27/05/2026): importers must buy 20% of the volume locally to obtain the licence. Press reports list chicken, pork, rice, sugar and tilapiaPublished. Beef, offal and other fish are not on the reported list
GabonBan on broiler chicken imports planned from 01/01/2027Under review. After a US complaint at the WTO, the government is studying tariffs, temporary quotas or stricter sanitary rules (Council of Ministers, 18/09/2026)
DR CongoJune 2026: OCC ordered the withdrawal of a lot of Polish frozen chicken thighs (1,384 packs, 692 kg, Salmonella). August 2026: ACOREP alert and withdrawal of chilled Polish chicken lotsStronger documentary, physical and laboratory checks
CongoDecree 2022-370 (exemptions in return for approved prices)Repealed by Decree 2024-2243 of 17/10/2024, together with its price orders. Check the current tariff with customs

What this means for an importer

  • Mackerel: do not expect lower prices before the 2027 quotas are set. Cover your needs until February now, and look at horse mackerel or sardinella if the size suits your market.
  • Milk powder: the trend is up. Fix your volumes for the first quarter of 2027 before Ramadan, and specify the grade and shelf life in your enquiry.
  • Freight: book three to four weeks before the loading date. Compare transit time and free days, not only the freight price.
  • Pork and poultry: EU pork is cheaper than last year, so this is a good time for regular buying. For poultry, check the plant's region against current bird flu restrictions, and against the rules in Gabon, Angola and the DR Congo, before you open a letter of credit.

FAQ

Will mackerel be cheaper in 2027? Not necessarily. The 2027 advice of 352,938 t looks like a doubling. It is in fact about 11% below the catches ICES expects for 2026. The real signal will be the quotas that coastal states set at the end of the year.

Can I still import Polish chicken into DR Congo? The alerts concern specific lots, not a general ban. Ask for EU-approved plants with recent microbiological analyses, and an SGS or Bureau Veritas inspection before loading if needed.

Why is SMP rising when Europe produces more milk? Exports to Asia and the Gulf take the extra powder. At GDT, buyers are paying for protein: SMP now trades above whole milk powder.

How early should I book a 40ft reefer for Abidjan? Allow three to four weeks. Loading takes 10 to 21 days after confirmation, and a carrier can refuse a booking for lack of empty containers until it confirms it.

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Sources

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