A market that turned in three months
In early July 2026, SMP hit its low point of the year. Since then it has gained about 20% on the world market, and it rose another 4.3% at the Global Dairy Trade auction of 6 October. Year on year, skimmed milk powder costs about 30 to 40% more, according to US Department of Agriculture reports.
A rare situation: skimmed powder now trades above whole milk powder. The market is paying for protein, not fat. Butter, by contrast, is down about 30% year on year.
Our European suppliers confirm it. This week a Polish dairy told us: "Prices have gone up sharply. Everyone is looking for SMP right now."
Why European supply is tightening
Europe still produces a lot of milk: collection is up 3.3% over the first seven months of 2026. But three factors are shrinking the powder actually available for sale:
- Exports are surging. In the second quarter, Europe exported about 22% more SMP than a year earlier. Available stocks fell by about 20%.
- Asia and the Gulf are buying hard. South-East Asia takes 60% of the volumes sold on Global Dairy Trade. Indonesia (+20%) and the UAE (+33%) are increasing their purchases of European SMP.
- Milk collection is slowing. Summer heatwaves and drought in Central Europe weigh on deliveries. In August, Poland fell below last year's level.
There is no shortage, but spot supply is tight. European analysts expect availability to be "tighter than anticipated" for first-quarter 2027 contracts.
What it means for a West African importer
West Africa imports USD 1.6 to 1.9 billion of dairy products a year, and powder accounts for more than 90% of it. It is repacked into sachets or processed into recombined milk, yoghurt and drinks.
In this market, four habits protect the margin:
- Book early. A firm offer is valid for a few days only, and plants confirm volumes in the order of paid orders. Waiting for a dip means risking no product for the festive season and Ramadan.
- Choose the right grade. There is not one SMP but several grades, classified by heat treatment (low, medium or high heat) and by quality (standard or extra grade). A standard medium-heat SMP suits repacking, yoghurt and bakery. Industrial UHT milk recombination requires a higher grade, with lower fat and much stricter solubility and bacterial limits. Fix the specification before asking for a quote.
- Check the shelf life. Depending on the producer, SMP is guaranteed for 12 or 24 months from production. The 24-month version is the one our customers ask for most, as it leaves more room for transit, stock and resale. State it in your enquiry.
- Watch customs. In ECOWAS, milk powder in bags of 25 kg and more pays only 5% import duty today. A move to 35% is under discussion, with a possible decision in late 2026 or mid-2027.
The SMP we supply
We supply SMP from approved European Union dairies, spray-dried from pasteurised milk:
- Protein: min. 34%
- Fat: max. 1.25%
- Moisture: max. 4%
- Grades: standard medium heat; other grades against the buyer's specification
- Shelf life: 12 or 24 months depending on the producer
- Packing: 25 kg multi-layer paper bags with polyethylene liner, or 1,000 kg big bags
- Transport: full 20ft or 40ft dry container, ambient temperature
- Documents: health certificate, certificate of analysis for each lot, certificate of origin; halal certificate on request
We deliver CIF Abidjan, Dakar, Tema, Lomé, Cotonou, Conakry, Nouakchott, Banjul, Monrovia and Freetown, and can quote onward transport to Mali and Burkina Faso via Abidjan or Dakar on request.
5 questions to ask before buying SMP this season
At ATC Group we compare quotes from several European dairies every week and offer you the best grade available for your use. Ask for this week's offer on WhatsApp: +48 501 351 121.
- For which use: repacking, yoghurt, bakery or recombined UHT milk?
- Which grade and which analyses do you require (protein, fat, solubility, microbiology)?
- What minimum shelf life on arrival?
- 25 kg bags or big bags, and how many tonnes per container?
- Will your import documents be ready before the vessel arrives?
Sources
Global Dairy Trade (auction of 6 October 2026, via Farmers Weekly NZ), European Commission DG AGRI (dairy dashboard, 7 October 2026), USDA Dairy Market News (21-25 September 2026), AHDB (EU stocks Q2 2026), Ecofin Agency (dairy imports and CET reform, February 2026), UEMOA (CET, chapter 4), supplier quotes received by ATC Group on 8 October 2026.