Cocoa Market Situation and Outlook for 2025

Harvest and Deliveries:

As of January 19th, cocoa bean deliveries to ports in Côte d’Ivoire reached 1,191,000 tons, a 24% increase compared to the previous season.

However, there's a decreasing trend in deliveries over the past six weeks, with fewer beans delivered compared to the same period last year.

It is expected that approximately 100,000 tons less will be delivered to ports over the next 10 weeks compared to last year.

Ghana reported that 370,000 tons of cocoa beans sold but not delivered last year will be included in the current season's deliveries.

Ghana anticipates a harvest of 617,500 tons, resulting in a carryover deficit of at least 300,000 tons, and likely more.

Market Deficit and Stocks:

The market continues to experience a physical shortage of cocoa beans.

A fourth consecutive deficit year is highly likely.

Certified stock levels in U.S. warehouses decreased in November, reaching their lowest point in at least the last 10 years.

As of January 24th, U.S. warehouses held 1,263,000 bags (approximately 80,000 tons), enough for about six days of global consumption. This is the lowest number in 21 years.

ICCO says that global grinders stock has decreased 36% y/y. Showing a number of 260 000 MT decrease. If grinding figures and crop figures are considered, the stock decrease should be 450 000 MT.

Consumption and Processing:

EU reported its weakest quarter in cocoa bean processing in the past four years.

The U.S. recorded an increase of 16,000 tons in processing compared to the previous year.

Asia demonstrated a slight increase in processing on a year-to-year basis.

Brazil's processing decreased by 5% in the 4th quarter.

Eastern European markets, including Russia, showed a chocolate consumption decline of about 9%.

The total reduction in global consumption is estimated to be no more than 50,000 tons, while the deficit exceeds 500,000 tons.

Market Dynamics and Prices:

Barry Callebaut shares have dropped about 10% recently due to a 2.7% decline in sales.

Hershey's shares have decreased by 12% over the past month and 25% over the past six months.

Hershey caused panic buying in the futures market in mid-January, announcing intentions to purchase and hedge 90,000 tons.

As of today, the market price stands at €11,000 per ton.

The New York market is likely to trade within the range of $12,000 per ton and above for March 2025 contracts.

Price growth is expected to form wave 3, potentially reaching levels of $15,000–$18,000 per ton. The advice to clients is to buy any price correction. Given the current market volatility, movements exceeding $1,000 per day could be seen.

Cocoa Butter, Liquor, and Powder Ratios:

Cocoa butter ratio is at 2.83, corrected from peak values in summer 2024. The price in the first/second quarter will be approximately €31,130 per ton.

Cocoa liquor ratio is at 1.90, with a slight downward correction trend projected for 2025. The price in the first quarter will be approximately €20,900 per ton.

Cocoa powder ratio is 0.82, with the final product price increased compared to last month. Natural cocoa powder starts from €9,000 per ton, and alkalized cocoa powder starts from €9,500 per ton.

Weather:

Rainfall in West Africa over the past 30 and 90 days has been below average, especially in northern cocoa-growing areas.

Rain is currently falling only along the coast, where cocoa beans do not grow.

The bean count per 100 grams will start exceeding 100 pieces as early as February, which typically happens in April.

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